30Y UST is a rates, credit, or FX market instrument used for cross-asset context. Its score links the latest level to related macro, liquidity, and risk signals.
Canonical asset packet first: fundamentals, macro index exposure, entry value, and active narrative alignment. Driver rows link back to the public index that moved the score.
| Index | Driver | Reason | Weight | Condition | Contribution | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSPM | Macro Surprise Pulse Meter | policy momentum | 5% | policy momentum — headwind Moderate signal—/100Headwind -0.85σ | -0.045 | 2026-05-29 |
| YCSI | Yield Curve Sentiment Index | very long duration | 38% | very long duration — headwind Near normal—/100Headwind -0.07σ | -0.036 | 2026-05-29 |
| SDBI | Sovereign Debt Burden Index | sovereign stress | 12% | sovereign stress — headwind Near normal—/100Headwind -0.13σ | -0.022 | 2026-05-29 |
What would make this thesis wrong, and where the near-term downside sits. Plain reads, not forecasts.
Invalidation analysis is deferred to v2 and will use contribution-weighted headwind thresholds.
