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3 Divergences ActiveBTLI/CMAI, CRSI/LFSI — relationships that normally move together are decoupling
→Bitcoin & and crypto market are diverging under elevated stress
Risk is rising. Most of the pressure comes from stress levels — more than half of the indicators we track are moving in the same direction, which is unusual. The dominant theme is the Japan Carry.
Regime constructive but stress elevated — driven by high Stress and Divergences.
Japan Carry is the #2 theme
Yen weakness and EM pressure building — carry unwind risk elevated.. If EM flows spike with crypto volatility, contagion risk is extreme.
Bitcoin & and crypto market are diverging
Bitcoin leverage equities amplify crypto market momentum
Walgreens NNN health is stressed
Financing rates high (cap rate expansion risk for new acquisitions). Real Estate Financing Index is a headwind (financing conditions affect store portfolio optimization).
Implications
- •Broad constructive regime (4/7 pillars positive) favors risk assets.
- •Stress levels (25/25) is the dominant score contributor.
- •Dollar is improving fastest — watch for regime shift.
LiquidityAccommodativeCreditStableRatesFlatGrowthExpanding
45/45 indices · Next update ~4h
What Changed Today
5 shiftsMarket Environment
Full regime →Liquidity
Accommodative
+0.06σ (flat)Credit
Stable
+0.02σ (flat)Rates
Flat
+0.00σ (flat)Growth
Expanding
+0.05σ (flat)Dollar
USD Bid
+0.17σ (flat)Energy
Stable
-0.05σ (flat)Risk
Neutral
-0.04σ (flat)Infra
Demand Rising
+0.13σ (flat)Divergences
3 activeBitcoin & & crypto market decoupled
Bitcoin leverage equities amplify crypto market momentum
Big Themes
All narratives →Recession Risk
0%LowYield curve stress
Rising delinquencies
Credit spreads widening
Earnings breadth declining
Liquidity tightening