McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant brand, with nearly $139 billion in systemwide sales across more than 45,000 restaurants and over 100 markets. The quick-service chain built its early reputation on speed, consistency, and affordable hamburgers, and today its global menu spans burgers, chicken, breakfast, and beverages that have helped popularize American fast-food cuisine worldwide.
Canonical asset packet first: fundamentals, macro index exposure, entry value, and active narrative alignment. Driver rows link back to the public index that moved the score.
| Index | Driver | Reason | Weight | Condition | Contribution | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCSI | Consumer Credit Stress Index | consumer credit | 5% | consumer credit — tailwind Moderate signal—/100Tailwind +0.96σ | +0.047 | 2026-05-29 |
| MSPM | Macro Surprise Pulse Meter | consumer cycle | 5% | consumer cycle — headwind Moderate signal—/100Headwind -0.85σ | -0.045 | 2026-05-29 |
| RMSI | Real Estate Market Stress Index | real estate costs | 8% | real estate costs — headwind Near normal—/100Headwind -0.38σ | -0.041 | 2026-05-29 |
What would make this thesis wrong, and where the near-term downside sits. Plain reads, not forecasts.
Invalidation analysis is deferred to v2 and will use contribution-weighted headwind thresholds.
